How many lessons do we have to make up for when th

2022-06-23
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How many lessons need to be filled when the robot spring tide strikes China

how many lessons need to be filled when the robot spring tide strikes China

10:55 source://

original title: how many lessons need to be filled when the robot spring tide strikes China

although it has reached its fourth year, the world robot Congress in China does not seem to show any weakness. There are still a lot of traffic at the door and the venue is crowded. According to the latest released data, the total number of visitors to the 2018 World robotics conference has reached 282000 over the past five consecutive days - a hot spot comparable to a small holiday

charlesdarwin once mentioned in his theory of evolution that what can survive in the future may not be the strongest and smartest, but those who can adapt to the environment and are willing to change for it. Now, more than 100 years later, people have rushed in from all directions, chasing robots, a field of science and technology with active changes. One reason is that they are afraid to miss this time-space train to the future and at least take a look at "what belongs to the future"

people who are experiencing this change are no longer satisfied with provocative topics such as whether machines win or humans win in the "man-machine war" or the "threat theory" of robots. They are more willing to ask what kind of robot world the most active investors and the most imaginative people are building today? What is the current situation of robots in the two promising fields of industry and service? And in the mighty tide of robots, what lessons should China, which is sprinting towards an innovative country, make up

therefore, the China Youth Daily · China Youth crouching conference conducted an investigation

can China walk out of the blockade circle of "four families"

"too soon!"

after his visit to China, Jeff Bernstein, chairman of the American Robotics Industry Association, was most surprised by the rapid rise of the robot market: looking at the global industrial robot market, the compound growth rate reached 12% from 2011 to 2016. The main application industries are automobile and electronic manufacturing, and the main use region is China

the latest report on the development of China's robot industry released at the conference clearly mentioned that China's industrial robot market accounts for about 1/3 of the global market share, and has become the world's largest application market for six consecutive years. Behind the excitement, people can't help asking, what is the proportion of domestic robots with the largest share; The market is the largest, but what is the profit? In other words, who is the winner in this "largest" market

maybe we can see some clues from the two sets of data. Qudaokui, chairman of China robot industry alliance and President of Shenyang Xinsong Robot Automation Co., Ltd.: in China's industrial robot market, foreign robots account for 70% and should ensure the fixed market share of equipment. However, against the background of the rapid growth of the domestic market scale, the market share of domestic robots has "shrunk" by 5.9% over the previous year - which shows that foreign robots are accelerating to occupy the Chinese market

another set of data is the price of domestic industrial robots. Wangtianmiao, Professor of Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics and honorary director of the Robotics Research Institute, noted that since the end of last year, the domestic industrial robots originally sold at 300000 yuan per unit have dropped to 120000 to 150000 yuan per unit in the first half of this year, and some manufacturers have even sold 20000 yuan per unit directly, which is just a fraction of others. He vaguely felt that this was the "price war" in the field of industrial robots

"is low price followed by 'low quality' disrupting the market?" Asked wangtianmiao. On the one hand, when selling their own domestic robots, they fell into a price war of low price and low quality, "what they sell is cheap"; On the other hand, when introducing foreign technology, the other party raises the price, "what you buy is expensive", which is a worrying mess of "internal troubles and foreign aggression"

wangtianmiao said that the reason why low-cost or even low-quality robots have a large market demand in China is, in the final analysis, that "the core technology is not good". The overall level of industrial manufacturing is still at the middle and low end - the flower quilt covers the chicken cage, which looks good outside and empty inside

after careful investigation, the technical bottleneck that really restricts the industrial robot is mainly the controller, servo motor and reducer, which can account for 70% of the cost of a robot. WangShiHai, managing director of SDIC innovation, told during the conference, "for enterprises, if these core technologies do not break through, there will be no profit!"

what is little known to the outside world is that these core technologies are basically in the hands of "four families" in the robot field, such as abb in Switzerland, KUKA in Germany, FANUC in Japan and Yaskawa electric. WangShiHai said that even the manipulator that looks like a behemoth hides the technical mystery of "exact difference" in motion accuracy, speed and cycle time, which is precisely the advantage of ABB in the "four families"

in contrast, domestic industrial robots urgently need to get out of the situation of low-level repetition. Zhaojie, director of Robotics Research Institute of Harbin Institute of technology, said that we can do well from 1 to 10 and from 10 to 100, but when it comes to originality from 0 to 1, there is still a long way to go. "But these courses must be supplemented. Once the core technological innovation is lost and the leading role is replaced, competitors may take advantage of it."

are some robots essentially different from soymilk machines

compared with the bloody battle in the field of industrial robots, service robots may feel more like blooming everywhere and competing for beauty: whether it's garbage sorting, carving jade and stone, providing for the aged and the disabled, guiding doctors and doctors, new application scenarios and models emerge in endlessly. It seems that the dream of "every family has a robot" is within reach at the scene of the conference

as early as more than 10 years ago, when people talked about service robots, they would ask: when did you enter the homes of ordinary people? Now, when you look around you, you may feel that there are robots everywhere in human society - although they still look like "machines", not "human shapes"

as an invited guest of the main forum of the conference, Huang Mingming, founding partner of Mingshi capital, talked about a very interesting detail: once the service robot is mentioned, the public will always think of the "human form" first. However, investors in this field are very taboo about this, "if an entrepreneurial team mentions the" human form "robot in their business plan, our first reaction is: this project doesn't need to be seen!"

this is because people have naturally high expectations for "humanoid" robots. Movies, animation and other art works continue to influence and stimulate people to develop a subtle understanding: humanoid robots are "incomparably powerful and intelligent". But in reality, even if the machine is "human", its basic function is very single, "either say a few words and play a role similar to Siri, an intelligent voice assistant, or carry a tray, which can only bear the weight of one tray. In short, it doesn't look like a" person "in any way!" Huang Mingming said

therefore, in the real world, the capital and market are often chasing "cost-effective" floor sweeping robots. Businesses are constantly trying to innovate around such seemingly simple but necessary functions as "floor sweeping", "pier floor" and "dust removal"

just as wangtianmiao felt at the conference site: the robots "displayed" by the merchants are "very homogeneous". Five or six booths in the past, it was not easy to pop up an "eye-catching" one. After careful inquiry, he found that they are only conceptual products, which can not be expected to land in the world. What remains is only the "sweeping robot"

this also exposes a deep-seated problem, that is, the "immaturity" of the overall technology of the service robot. WangShiHai said that from a technical point of view, there is no essential difference between the sweeping robot and the popular soybean milk machine in the early years. "It just adds laser perception and some new algorithms, which can plan the path of repeated sweeping. However, it is still far from people's expectations for the machine 'human' - that is, artificial intelligence"

luorenquan, chief editor of the industrial information journal of the International Association of electrical and electronic engineers and professor of Taiwan University, also feels the same: in the past two years, the development of service-oriented robots has been very rapid. It seems that emerging technologies, including big data, IOT, cloud computing, etc., are constantly combined with robot production, bringing huge business opportunities

however, the "birth, aging and death" of these service robots still depend on the programming contributed by the human brain: accepting code, passively completing tasks, "there is no 'substantive' interaction with humans, and once there is external force involved, they will not be able to 'actively' respond". Luo Renquan hopes that in the future, some "intelligent robots" will be born that can interact with people and adapt to complex environments autonomously - even if they are not human, they can be called real robots

robots only replace labor, not people

at present, the greatest advantage of robots over humans may still be physical strength. At the conference, such as the intelligent cooperative robot with "three heads and six arms", the surgical robot for surgical operation, and the fully automatic drink machine for making milk tea, it seems to tell visitors that the world can still work well without people

this is also the biggest reason for Huang Mingming to enter the robot field. A few years ago, before the world robotics conference was held in China, and when robots were not as popular as they are now, he and his capital team had already entered this field which was still unpopular at that time. The judgment basis was that the demographic dividend was gradually disappearing, and "replacing people with machines" was the general trend

he has been in contact with the manufacturing industry for many years. He has almost traveled all over the manufacturing enterprises in the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta. The boss of the enterprise told him that the most painful thing every year is the difficulty of recruiting people. A boss who focuses on intelligent electric scooters once went to a restaurant in Changzhou for dinner. The little girl who served the dishes looked culturally literate. The boss asked her, "how much does the restaurant pay you in January? I'll add you 500 yuan. Tomorrow, I'll report to my factory!"

corresponding to the difficulty in recruiting people, the "Absence" of industrial robots is not too hot, too many, but too few

in April this year, the International Federation of robotics released a research report, which analyzed and calculated the density of industrial robots per 10000 employees in the manufacturing industry in 2016: the global average density is 74 industrial robots per 10000 employees, 99 in Europe, 84 in the Americas and 63 in Asia. As far as countries are concerned, Singapore ranks first with 488 units, followed by 309 units in Germany, 303 units in Japan, 189 units in the United States and 68 units in China. Huang Mingming said that in comparison, our replacement of machines is far from enough, and there is great potential to improve the level of robotics

in fact, for many front-line technology enterprises, "machine replacement" is no longer a topic of discussion, but an "ongoing movement"

it is inevitable to talk about the problem of "grabbing jobs". Luorenquan said that from the development history of human civilization, every industrial revolution has not triggered a large-scale wave of unemployment. Nowadays, the emergence and development of robots will replace human beings to do some simple jobs. These people will indeed face the risk of unemployment, but they will also be forced to do something richer儿童腹胀怎么办
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