The pattern of high water discount in the later st

2022-06-22
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The high discount pattern of glass in the later stage is expected to be improved.

since August, the spot price of glass has been rising all the way. Up to now, the average monthly spot price in East and North China has increased by more than 3%. However, the glass futures price rises first and then declines. Especially since the end of August, the futures price has dropped from a high of 1455 yuan/ton to around 1322 yuan/ton, a decrease of more than 10%. The current trend shows a differentiation pattern

the expansion of production capacity came to an end in 2013

since the second half of the year, new glass production lines have been launched intensively, with a total daily melting capacity of 18.25 million tons/day, of which North and central China are concentrated. This year, there are five new ignition production lines in Central China, including one in Hubei Minghong, two in Xianning Nanbo, one in Hubei Yijun and one in Hubei Three Gorges, plus one in Hubei Three Gorges for cold repair and resumption of production, with a total daily melting capacity of 4950 tons/day. In addition, 8 production lines were ignited in North China, including 6 in Shahe area, 1 in Qinhuangdao and 1 in Qian'an, with a total daily melting capacity of 6850 tons/day. There is no doubt that the huge new production capacity this year has brought pressure to the supply side that this kind of solution calculus nano laminated composite one-time injection molding has increased the strength of PVC, but the demand in the peak season has effectively digested the new supply. In addition, the ignition of new production lines and cold repair production lines this year has basically come to an end, and only sporadic production lines will be ignited and put into production. Therefore, the "silver ten" is expected to further increase the demand C. in the environment without corrosive media around;, So as to alleviate the relative imbalance between supply and demand in previous years

spot prices still have room to rise supported by demand

from the perspective of sub regions, the previously weak prices in Central China have significantly improved. In the early stage, the prices in Central China were mainly subject to capacity expansion. Recently, driven by the high price increase of products sold to other places and surrounding markets, manufacturers have also stepped up the pace of price increase, enhancing market confidence. Affected by the typhoon in the southern market, the short-term shipment was slightly blocked, so the price performance was average. Only some enterprises raised the price slightly due to less inventory. At present, the price of Jiangmen China Resources 5mm white glass is 1632 yuan/ton. Manufacturers in Shahe region of North China improved their shipments after the holiday, and the price remained around 1312 yuan/ton

the decline of inventory for several weeks has supported the upward trend of spot prices. As of last week, the inventory of glass enterprises can be appropriately increased to 27.1 million heavy containers, which is the lowest level since this year. In the context of increasing production capacity, the continuous decline of inventory indicates that demand is constantly following up, including domestic demand and export. According to customs data, from January to July, China's flat glass exports totaled 111.47 million square meters, an increase of 5.67% year-on-year

impact of factory warehouse delivery system on glass futures price

fg1309 contract delivery was completed last week, and a large number of warehouse receipts were written off before delivery. When the price of the delivery contract is significantly lower than the spot price, the factory and warehouse choose to cancel the warehouse receipt - taking advantage of the convenience of the system of factory and warehouse delivery. For non warehouse enterprises and downstream dealers, they are faced with a dilemma. On the one hand, they see attractive prices and want to layout positions. On the other hand, they are faced with the financial pressure of full cash or 130% bank guarantee and the dilemma of having no goods to pick up. In addition, the time node of the twice yearly adjustment of the factory warehouse up discount was in November. Due to the uncertainty of the adjustment of the up discount, the hedging transactions of the production enterprises lacked smooth institutional support, and the glass futures price was in a high discount state in the short term

from the point of time, the current is the peak season for the demand for glass spot, and it is also the time when the expected benefits are gradually realized. The glass spot price is rising strongly, while the futures contract 1401 corresponds to the off-season of the glass industry, and the futures price is weak. At present, the discount in South China has reached 290 yuan/ton during the storage period, and the discount in Shahe area is around 170 yuan/ton. The author believes that with the end of the peak season of glass demand, the spot price will fall, while the downward space of futures price is limited, and it will rise from the low level. The pattern of futures and current high discount is expected to be improved. (author unit: Everbright futures) the content of this article is for reference only and does not constitute investment suggestions. Investors operate accordingly at their own risk

Zhonghua glass () Department

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